🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."